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A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Call for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."